Woodstock--Where were you?August 11, 2009 was the 40th anniversary of Woodstock. An estimated 300,000 people attended the 3 days of peace and love. It was the defining event of our generation. Unfortunately, I was not one of them.
However, I was around in 1969, and Robert Kirkpatrick has written a book about it, titled, "The Year Everything Changed."
It was a year when America witnessed many of the biggest landmark achievements, cataclysmic episodes, and generation-defining events in recent history.
1969 was the year that saw Apollo 11 land on the moon, the Cinderella stories of Joe Namath’s Jets and the “Miracle Mets,” the People’s Park riots, the first artificial heart transplant and first computer network connection, the Manson family murders and cryptic Zodiac Killer letters, the Woodstock music festival, Easy Rider, Kurt Vonnegut’s Slaughterhouse-Five, the Battle of Hamburger Hill, the invasion of Led Zeppelin, the occupation of Alcatraz, death at Altamont Speedway, and much more.
It is often said that if you remember the 60s, you probably weren't there. but perhaps more important than if we remember the 60s, is the question, "What did we really learn from them?"
It was estimated that as of July 1, 2005, there were 78.2 million of us. Many of us have been married and divorced... more than once. We are the generation that pushed the divorce rate up to 50%... and made it seem "normal" and thus acceptable.
7,918 of us began turning 60 each day in 2006.That amounts to 330 every hour.
57.8 million is the number of baby boomers living in 2030, according to projections; 54.9 percent would be female. That year, boomers would be between ages 66 and 84.
Some wonder what effect the boomers are having on the economy, and will have in the future. In 2009, the economy IS the boomers! We represent the vast majority of the work force. There are 75 million of us; we ARE the economy. The huge growth in the economy since the 90s is due, in large part, to 75 million of us working up to our peak earning and spending years. What are we spending our money on? Whatever is being sold... we are buying it. What kind of cars are we buying? What kind are Detroit and Japan selling? We ARE the upper end of the automobile market. Where do we go on vacation? Everywhere. How do we get there? Every way possible. Day care centers are thriving because boomers do not want to take care of the kids we produced. And our offspring think it is supposed to be that way. (Parents are not supposed to stay home and raise their children. Why, that's a terribly stupid idea, huh? That is what day care centers and the government is for.)
The age wave theory suggested an economic slowdown would occur when the boomers start retiring during 2007-2009. And guess what. They are right. Look at what is happening to the economy today.
As the first wave of baby boomers edges toward retirement, a growing body of evidence suggests that we may be the first generation to enter their golden years in worse health than our parents. While not definitive, the data sketch a startlingly different picture than the popular image of health-obsessed workout fanatics who know our antioxidants from our trans fats and look 10 years younger than our age.
Boomers are healthier in some important ways -- we are much less likely to smoke, for example -- but large surveys are consistently finding that we tend to describe ourselves as less hale and hearty than our forebears did at the same age. We are more likely to report difficulty climbing stairs, getting up from a chair and doing other routine activities, as well as more chronic problems such as high cholesterol, blood pressure and diabetes.
Researchers say the findings track with several unhealthy trends, notably the obesity epidemic. Two-thirds of Americans are overweight, and those extra pounds make joints wear out more quickly, boost cholesterol and blood pressure, and raise the risk of a host of debilitating health problems. And despite all those gym memberships, we tend to be less physically active than their parents and grandparents, our daily routines often dominated by desk jobs and the drive to and from work.
Most immediately, we will begin to draw government benefits such as Social Security and Medicare. Both entitlement programs will be exceedingly costly. In 2006, Social Security cost U.S. taxpayers about 4.2% of GDP, or approximately $554 billion. This figure is expected to increase to 6.2% of GDP by 2030, and to continue rising.
Meanwhile, the potential long-term costs of Medicare are even more severe. Currently, Medicare costs U.S. taxpayers about $230 billion per year, or 3.1% of GDP. However, these figures are expected to rise dramatically over the next 20 years as more of us pass age 75. In fact, government analysts estimate that by 2018, Medicare will have surpassed Social Security in terms of its annual cost.
Given these figures, the Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees stated in their 2007 Annual Report that, “…currently projected long-run growth rates [for the programs] are not sustainable under current financing arrangements.” Translation: Either long-term-benefits must decrease, or taxes must increase if benefits are to continue at their current levels.
For taxpayers, the Boomers’ retirement means that younger workers will have to bear a much larger burden in order to support the burgeoning ranks of retirees. Currently, there are 3.3 U.S. workers to support each retiree, but by 2030, this number will fall to only two. Given the political clout that seniors have and are likely to retain in the future, an increase in payroll taxes to support the Boomers’ needs seems entirely plausible. Extrapolated over a 10 to 20-year period, such an increase could represent a significant drag on U.S. economic growth. While increases in per-worker productivity may offset some of this burden, it remains to be seen how the U.S. will deal with what is arguably one of the most difficult financial burdens it has ever faced.
Which brings me back to the question, "What did we really learn from 1969?"
I will attempt to answer that in the third and final part of this piece.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
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